In a striking image published by The Economist, massive barges loaded with piles of black coal pass by the Grand Mosque of Samarinda in Indonesia along the Mahakam River under a cloudy sky. This is not a scene from the past—it is the reality of 2026, reflecting a global energy shock that is pushing coal back to the forefront of strategic priorities.
The liquefied natural gas (LNG) crisis that has hit Europe and Asia—driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—has forced countries to revert to coal as a fast and reliable alternative. Even Germany, which had previously shut down coal plants, has restarted them. Meanwhile, China and India increased coal imports by more than 18% in the first quarter of the year.
Indonesia, the world’s largest coal exporter, is experiencing an unprecedented boom in river shipments—clear evidence that “black coal has once again become the market’s preferred fuel.”
—
Why Coal Is Making a Comeback
Choucair explains that coal’s return is not random—it is the result of three structural drivers:
- Energy Security Over Climate (For Now)
In the short term, energy security is outweighing environmental priorities. Countries are seeking reliable, immediately available fuel, especially after:
Disruptions in Russian gas supplies
Inability of alternative suppliers to fully close the gap
Coal offers key advantages:
Local or nearby availability
Easy storage
Stability for electricity grids during peak demand
—
- Explosive Price Dynamics
Coal prices have surged dramatically:
Thermal coal exceeded $180 per ton in Asian markets
Compared to roughly $90 just two years ago
This has translated into record profits for major mining companies such as:
Glencore
BHP
Coal India
Even smaller Indonesian river transport operators are achieving returns of up to 40% annually.
—
- Massive Asian Demand
Asia remains the core driver of the coal market:
China consumes nearly 4 billion tons annually
India plans to add 80 GW of coal-fired power capacity by 2030
Indonesia has delayed its coal phase-out timeline to post-2040
> “Economic reality today is clearly overriding environmental commitments,” Choucair notes.
—
Investment Perspective: A Tactical Opportunity
From an investment standpoint, Choucair argues that coal is not merely a transitional fuel—it represents a short-term opportunity window.
Key names attracting attention include:
Coal India (projected ~25% growth in 2026)
Adaro Energy
Glencore
Peabody Energy
—
The “Black Bridge” Strategy
Choucair outlines a disciplined approach he calls the “Black Bridge Strategy”:
Allocate 15–20% of the portfolio to coal for 12–18 months
Maintain exposure to renewable energy (solar & wind)
Use coal as a transitional profit engine, not a permanent bet
> “Cross through coal today—transition to green tomorrow.”
—
Not the End of Clean Energy
Choucair emphasizes that this resurgence does not signal the end of clean energy:
The environmental and health costs of coal remain high
Long-term policies still favor decarbonization
However, current priorities favor reliability over purity
—
Strategic Conclusion
The image from The Economist is not just visual—it is symbolic of a deeper shift:
Coal has become a temporary bridge in a fragmented energy system
Energy markets are being reshaped by security, not ideology
Investment opportunities now lie in understanding transition phases—not just end states
> “Black is not just a color—it is an investment opportunity.”
Choucair concludes that in the evolving global energy market:
Those who adapt quickly will capture outsized returns
Those anchored to outdated assumptions risk falling behind
> “In the new energy order, flexibility is profit—and speed is advantage.”